17 - 08 -11
Coming out of the debt ceiling deal, President Obama looked tired and defeated. His liberal base and fellow Democrats had felt let down by their President's necessity to compromise. Despite the disappointment, they are well aware of the hardships of negotiating with the increasingly right wing Republicans. The simple fact of the matter is that a bad economy will work towards the Republican's favourable outcome in 2012; tea party meetings held since the debt deal have cheered the news that the economy was taking a blow.
Over the last week, the message from the President is one of rejuvenation. He has formally launched his re-election bid, and what has come with that is a bit of the partisan politics that the other side has been devout to over the last 3 years. Obama hopes to raise an unprecedented $1billion for his campaign. Coming out swinging, the President threw some punches, rallying "I want everyone to understand here, I'm not here just to enjoy the nice weather; I'm here to enlist you in a fight......You've got to send a message to Washington that it's time for the games to stop, it's time to put country first."
While the President gathers his support, the other side is in the process of choosing a leader to oppose him. There are a number of hopefuls throwing their hat in the ring, while some have merely been dancing curiously close to the ring. The front-runner is Mormon Mitt Romney, an ex-Governor of Massachusetts and successful businessman known for being a bit of a flip-flopper on issues to suit what is required of him from the people at that point in time. Despite the lack of consistency and Mormon faith (which is likely to not go down well with evangelicals in his base), he has an impressive private sector record including turning round failing business. This could prove a vital skill if they economy in 2012 is as stagnant as it is now.
Rick Perry, a late addition to the candidates, is following in George W. Bush's footsteps with hopes for a promotion from Texas Governor to President. His qualities as a deeply religious social conservative who is fiscally restrained should allow him to cover all the bases necessary for a nomination from the right. His main challenger with similar qualities is tea party favourite Michelle Bachmann. She in turn, she will be wishing that Sarah Palin will not run as it would overlap into her base.
Mrs Palin who has been on a country-wide 'tour' that bears a striking resemblance to a campaign has yet to officially announce her bid. The mystery deepened last week when she just happened to be in IOWA while the televised Republican debates were taking place a few miles away. Although she has fiery support from the tea party, she has to be a polarising figure that will deter independents and centrists.
If Palin or Bachmann run, it will be an advantage to Obama as the pair really only have holds on the far right of the US electorate. Palin and Bachmann’s aversion to facts and logic will be sure to alienate people those outside the scope of the tea party. The real challenge for the Democrats will occur if Romney or Perry receives the Republican nomination as they both have crossover appeal for the undecided voters who generally decide elections.
The President meanwhile has switched his focus to jobs this week while setting out of Washington into three Midwestern States that aided his victory in 2008. Following the last few years of criticism and difficulties encountered, President Obama's standing in these states has been diminished as has his standing throughout America. The Republicans have promised they will repeal the Healthcare bill that is to come into effect in 2013 if he should loose, so he will need to relight the flames of hope that ensured his first victory if he wishes to leave a lasting legacy.
The Democratic campaign needs to remind the people of the situation for the first eight years of the decade. They need to advertise their achievements like the passing of the historic health care bill, the stimulus, reduction of troops from the two wars, the killing of Bin Laden, laying down new rules for Wall Street and most of all highlight the behaviour of their opposition during the crisis. Should the Democrats retain the Presidency in 2012, I foresee a shift in the political game for the duration of the second term. Presidents often stay centrist throughout their first terms in order to achieve the second. But once it is guaranteed, I see the anger and frustration that has been building in the Democrats being finally be let loose. I see a far more left-wing second term with less emphasis on bipartisanship…I see the gloves finally coming off.
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